For Joe Biden, the immortal phrases of baseball pitcher and all-purpose sage Satchel Paige apply proper now: “Don‘t look again. One thing is perhaps gaining on you.”
In the mean time, President Trump doesn’t seem like gaining on Mr. Biden within the 2020 presidential race, however quite doing the alternative: fading additional again within the polls. But 18 weeks stay earlier than Election Day—an eternity within the period of Trump, when massive shocks include beautiful regularity.
Think about that 18 weeks in the past, the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention reported exactly 53 People had been contaminated with the coronavirus, and the primary publicly recognized deaths had been solely about to be reported. The massive information was the just-completed impeachment trial of Mr. Trump and the #MeToo conviction of film mogul Harvey Weinstein. Unemployment stood at 3.5%. George Floyd was nonetheless alive.
Furthermore, political historical past teaches us that generally seeming blowouts flip round. In 1988, Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis had a 17-point lead over then-Vice President George H.W. Bush in a midsummer Gallup ballot. Everyone knows how that turned out.
Different instances, seemingly tight races flip into blowouts. In 1980, then-President Jimmy Carter and Republican nominee Ronald Reagan had been almost tied within the polls till Mr. Reagan proved himself to swing voters in a late-September debate, then surged to a landslide victory.